The US has shed almost 1.2 million jobs in 2025, and layoffs are projected to continue well into next year. While corporate restructuring is the major reason given for the layoffs, the perception of AI as a job creator (as it was seen in previous research we have published over the last two years) is starting to slip. While the largest segment of respondents still views AI as job-neutral, for the first time, more respondents believe that AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates. Amid this gloom, it may surprise you that we still think the IT job market and the salary outlook are relatively strong.
As shown in Figure 8 from our full executive summary, 75% of all US IT organizations do not believe generative AI (Gen AI) will have an impact on hiring. However, 21% of organizations believe AI will lead to job cuts in the next 18 months. Only 4% believe it will lead to growth. This is a major shift within a one-year span. Last year, 24% of companies we surveyed thought AI would lead to job growth, and only 13% thought it would lead to job cuts.
“Despite the layoffs and the change of heart around AI, companies in our survey are still planning to increase head count,” said David Wagner, senior research director for Avasant Research, based in Los Angeles. “High-profile technology companies have been making layoffs, but end users are swooping in and picking up that talent, at least for now.”
The survey shows that the number of companies intending to hire is 57%, just a couple of ticks lower than the 60% of companies projected to increase hiring for 2025. It is also very noteworthy that only 4% of survey respondents plan to reduce IT personnel in 2026. Moreover, the expected increase in those expanding their IT head counts is a healthy 7%.
The mixed employment outlook, combined with AI and other technologies, is leading to some interesting volatility in salaries. We are reporting some jobs, especially those heavily impacted by AI, such as application developers, with lower national medians than in previous years. Other jobs are seeing higher gains than normal.
Much as many people are starting to predict a “K-shaped recession” in the US, we are seeing a K-shaped job market in IT. K-shaped recessions generally refer to economies where certain sectors grow while others see a major negative impact. The same thing is happening in the IT job market as technology shifts the types of roles in demand.
This full report contains top-line findings from our salary survey. These include the percentage of projected salary increases in 2026, the expected change in IT head count in 2026, the voluntary attrition rate, the impact of Gen AI on IT organizations, and the toughest IT jobs to fill.
The full report estimates 2026 salaries for 82 IT job functions in more than 400 US metropolitan areas and 20 sectors. The report is based on our annual salary survey of IT organizations in the US, along with other sources of compensation data, as well as regional and industry data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For trend information, we also use our annual IT Spending and Staffing Benchmarks study. A complete description of the methodology is provided at the end of the report.
This Research Byte is a brief overview of our IT Salary Report 2026. The full report is available at no charge for Avasant Research subscribers. The complete 33-page executive summary and sample salary tables can be downloaded at no charge.